The Line Movers: NFL Week 9Blog
The Line Movers: NFL Week 9
Huddle utilizes cutting-edge technology and a world-class trading team to ensure that our partners consistently get precise pricing on all sports' biggest moments. Each week, our new content series, 'The Line Movers' will tear back the curtain on the most impactful sports moments of the week and discuss how our traders approach pricing the market in real time.
This week we are discussing the fatal mistake made by Mac Jones in the final minutes of the New England Patriots vs. Washington Commanders NFL Sunday matchup, and how our traders priced the Patriots' attempted comeback drive.
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NFL Week 9: Patriots vs. Commanders Line Mover
The 2023/24 New England Patriots have looked nothing like the Patriots of old that struck fear into the hearts of the AFC. Currently, this year's Patriots are sitting at the bottom of the AFC East and are in contention for a top-3 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft.
Last Sunday, the Patriots were looking to win their third game of the season but found themself down three points with 2 minutes remaining on the clock, 91 yards away from the Washington end zone. At this point, Huddle traders gave the Patriots a 23.50% chance (+325 odds) of winning the game as their offense had failed to get anything moving throughout the game (or season).
Despite their lackluster offense, a few plays later, Mac Jones had driven the ball to the Patriots' 45-yard line and had a full set of downs to move into Washington territory. At this point, momentum (and the lines) started to move in the Patriots' favor and Huddle traders now had the Patriots priced at +159, with a 38.50% chance of winning the game. Although a momentum shift had started to move toward a Patriots win, Huddle's cutting-edge tech takes everything into account when providing pricing for our partners and it avoided moving the line too much due to Mac Jones fourth quarter interception statistics (something that our partners were thankful for a few plays later).
If you watched the game on Sunday afternoon, you'll know how this drive ended. At the Commanders' 41-yard line, (within field goal range), with 30 seconds on the clock, Mac Jones' pass bounced off his receiver's hands into the opposing defense, moving the Patriots' win probability from 29.50% to 0%. Interestingly, before this play, Huddle had the probability of an overtime priced at 50%, but as mentioned gave the Patriots just a 29.50% chance of winning the game. So, although another Mac Jones interception was crushing to Patriots fans (and bettors), all signs were pointing towards the Commanders winning in overtime if the Patriots had converted the long field goal.
Huddle prices markets using the perfect combination of cutting-edge technology and in-person trading leading the market in key moments during games. In line-moving situations like the above, a single-tiered approach to pricing may have priced the Patriots' line more favorably as they were within FG range with multiple downs to inch closer. However, the Huddle algorithm and traders looked at more than just the down and distance, factoring in both Mac Jones's interception history and the probability of the Patriots rookie kicker making a 50+ yard field goal under game-winning pressure. This process allows Huddle to provide our partners with precision pricing for every moment, in every game. Check out how Huddle performs against the market in our weekly 'By the Numbers' report - HERE.
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