SGP Challenge: Beat the Huddle TradersBlog
SGP Challenge: Beat the Huddle Traders
Another week of SGP challenge, Jake vs Huddle trader Domagoj, is here but this time the focus is SNF matchup between Miami Dolphins and Buffalo Bills!
In a highly anticipated finale to the 2023-2024 NFL regular season, the Miami Dolphins face off against the Buffalo Bills. The Bills hold a 3-point favorite, with odds at -160, while the Dolphins trail closely at +135. This game carries significant playoff implications—securing a win grants the Dolphins the AFC's 2-seed, despite already clinching a playoff spot. Meanwhile, for the Bills, a victory not only ensures a playoff berth but also secures the AFC East title and the coveted 2-seed.
Here is a little recap of last week's result
Los Angeles Moneyline ✅
Puka Nacua Over 62.5 receiving yards ✅
Kyren Williams Over 89.5 rushing yards ✅
New Orleans Saints total Under 20.5 ❌
Kupp Cooper Total receiving yards Over 71 ✅
Kamara Alvin Total receiving yards Under 50 ❌
As much as I’d like to take the Dolphins in this match, I’m going to pick the Bills. They have more to play for, more on the line — a win secures them a playoff spot. A loss means they don’t control their own future. I do foresee a high scoring affair, as neither defense is particularly powerful heading into Week 18, particularly after the Dolphins lost star pass rusher Bradley Chubb to a torn ACL last week. With so much on the line, I’m expecting some second half fireworks, so I took the 2nd half as the higher scoring half combined with the over (O49.5). I do think that Jason Sanders and Tyler Bass are among the better kickers in the NFL + the game is played in Miami, making it ideal conditions for kicking, so I have the first field goal attempt being successful. One way or another, this will be one of the most impactful NFL games of the entire season!
Buffalo must win this game and I think they will. They have been playing really well in the last weeks and all their losses came pretty unlucky when you ask me. On the other hand Dolphins got destroyed in Baltimore last week and they are pretty banged up with injuries while on the other hand BIlls are healthier with only few injuries. This is why I like Buffalo more here.
I would not say it will be a close game so I picked the spread here. James Cook is having his best season so far and combined with Miami defense ranked #23rd in the league on Pass Plays with Diggs who has always been inspired against them (over 100 receiving yards in last 2 games). I think Buffalo will cover the spread.
I already stated that Buffalo needs this win so I think they will go hard right from the start. Miami is also not the team that will sit back and watch, especially at home. This is why I think they will take over in the first half. Weather forecast for the weekend in Miami is rain with storms on Saturdays, and since Miami plays on natural grass, there could be a lot of turnovers here, combined with interceptions. Both teams are scoring a lot in the first half throughout the season, especially Miami at home.
In their last 5 games only once total went over 14 in 4th quarter. Also, I think things will be decided a lot sooner so teams will bench their key players, especially Miami which did not do that in Baltimore and paid the price. They are still in the playoffs so risking more injuries is not an option for them. At this price I will risk and take the under here.
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