SGP Challenge: Beat the Huddle TraderBlog
SGP Challenge: Beat the Huddle Trader
Playoffs are in full swing, and the heat is on as we dive into another exciting week of the SGP Challenge!
Jake Moszkowksi and Huddle Trader Domagoj go head-to-head in a battle of strategy, and pure sports knowledge.
The Miami Dolphins head into Wild Card weekend on the heels of back-to-back disappointing showings. After beating the Dallas Cowboys in Week 16, they only needed to win one of their final two games to clinch the AFC East. Instead, they got destroyed on the road by the Baltimore Ravens in Week 17, and followed that up with a loss against their divisional rival (and recent kryptonite) Buffalo Bills. Rather than head confidently into the playoffs, the Dolphins limped in as the 6-seed, with injuries to their top two pass rushers (both season-ending) as well as their RB1 (Raheem Mostert, questionable for the wild card game) and WR2 (Jaylen Waddle, also questionable).
Here is a recap of last week's NFL final regular season game result:
Buffalo Bills Moneyline ✅
Successful First Goal attempt - void
2nd Half Highest Scoring ❌
Total over 49.5 ❌
4th Quarter Total Under 14 ✅
Buffalo Bills Spread -2.5 ✅
1st Half Total Over 24 ❌
Kansas City Chiefs secured the 3-seed for the playoffs, ensuring at least one home game to kick the postseason off for them. Since beating the Dolphins 21-14 in Germany during the first week of November, the Chiefs are playing .500 football, going 4-4 the rest of the way. Patrick Mahomes is a wizard come postseason play, so anything is possible for them.
One thing to note heading into this matchup is the cold weather – the Chiefs will be well prepared to play in their home stadium in frigid temperatures on Saturday. The Dolphins will be decidedly less prepared.
My reasoning for this 4-leg parlay is actually quite simple. The Dolphins pass defense has been extremely suspect to end the season, surrendering a combined 680 yards and 7 touchdowns to Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen the last two weeks. Mahomes is as good as them, if not better. I’m taking his over on passing yards, especially considering that Xavien Howard is expected to miss this game.
There are also few postseason performers as consistent as Travis Kelce. Kelce has had at least 6 receptions in every postseason game dating back to the 2022 Wild Card game (and even then he had 5 catches for 108 yards). He hasn’t had under 59 receiving yards in a playoff game since the Super Bowl in 2020. I’m happily taking his overs on both receiving yards and total receptions. Lastly, the playoffs can be a tough transition for any rookie, and despite Rashee Rice’s excellent season, I can see that being a continued trend. I’ll take his under on total receptions.
This will be one of the coldest games ever played, predictions go to -15 with some winds also.
It is really hard to play in this kind of weather, and Miami Dolphins did not get healthier from last week.
Under in total is my pick. Hands will be freezing, the ground (grass) will be concrete solid when falling on it so injuries are likely to happen. Also, Miami Dolphins are not used to this kind of weather and Kansas City Chiefs are. Just remember their 2019 AFC Championship game against New England Patriots where both teams scored over 30 points in regular time. In my opinion this will not be that kind of game, at least not scoring wise from Miami Dolphins.
Kansas City Chiefs lost Tyrek Hill, and they are not the same team as they were. On Miami Dolphins, all was said a week before when we predicted the game against Bills. This week it can only get worse for them.
I believe in Mahomes as I believed in Allen last week so I am putting my bet on him to tear apart Miami secondary. He gets sacked a lot this season but still this is playoffs and we saw multiple times what he is capable of doing.
Pacheco is playing the best season so far and he is their no.1 RB. My logic is here that Mahomes will switch to him if receivers are not up to this game and anyways he will trust him with only 1 fumble all season. This will be interesting since Miami Dolphins defense is pretty good against rushing but I am taking this bet. Freezing weather and the Florida team in it are enough for me.
For my last bet I took under because the weather will take its toll on players, specially Miami Dolphins, who are not used to it. Tiredness and possibly a blowout could make this bet good. Andy Reed will close the game if he sees it is over and bench Mahomes and their star players. And this is not impossible regarding all Dolphins injuries and Tua their recent form.
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