Huddle Presents “The Receiver”: How We Projected Total Receiving Yards for Some of the NFL’s Top Receiving Targets

For those who aren’t big NFL fans, here's a quick rundown: Last summer, Netflix released a documentary series called Quarterback, which had eight episodes and followed three NFL quarterbacks. It featured star QB Patrick Mahomes from the Kansas City Chiefs, former Minnesota Vikings QB Kirk Cousins, and Atlanta Falcons QB Marcus Mariota. The show got mixed reviews—some people liked the entertaining moments and how it showed a different side of the quarterbacks, while others felt the show was too carefully edited and didn't show the full picture of who they really are.

Nonetheless, the show was popular enough to spawn a spin-off of sorts; this time being The Receiver, which focused on some of the NFL’s best receivers, along with one very popular and talented tight end. This show followed the 49ers’ duo of Deebo Samuel (WR) and George Kittle (TE), along with the Raiders’ Davante Adams, the Vikings’ Justin Jefferson, and the Lions’ Amon-Ra St. Brown. 

I’d say this show was better received than its quarterback-y predecessor, with my personal favorites being the ever-entertaining 49ers’ duo and the wildly fascinating St. Brown, who has a spectacularly interesting background (father was Mr. Universe, and St. Brown speaks three languages fluently). 

Looking at their on-the-field play, I’d venture to say that Jefferson, Adams, and St. Brown comprises 3 of the top-10 wide receivers currently in the NFL. Jefferson and St. Brown in particular would be members of my top-5, along with the Dallas Cowboys’ CeeDee Lamb, the Miami Dolphins’ Tyreek Hill, and the Cincinnati Bengals’ Ja’Marr Chase. 

Receivers: Huddle Projections

And by now you’re surely wondering, how does Huddle project these star wideouts for this season? We’ll get into that below, along with some Week 1 receiving props for those players. Huddle offers player props on a game-by-game basis, which means you can wager on Justin Jefferson’s receiving yards every single week. 

If you ask me, well, I’d tell you - this is what I think of each of those receivers (and tight end!) and what I think they’re capable of doing this season. 

Justin Jefferson has consistently topped 1,000 receiving yards in each of his four NFL seasons. Last year, he racked up 1,074 yards in just 10 games, despite missing seven due to injury. He's the top target in his offense, never falling below 100 targets in a season. With Sam Darnold stepping in as QB after rookie J.J. McCarthy’s season-ending injury, Jefferson should still produce. In 2021, Darnold helped D.J. Moore reach 1,157 yards, and Jefferson is an even better receiver, so this yardage projection seems reasonable.

For Amon-Ra St. Brown projection depends a lot on the other targets in the Detroit Lions’ offense. Last season, he had 119 catches for 1,515 yards on 164 targets, and he’s expected to be a top target again. However, Sam LaPorta is going to get his fair share of targets, as is Jahmyr Gibbs. The biggest unknown is how Jameson Williams fares in Year 3. The former first round pick had 1 catch for 41 yards in Y1, and then 24 catches for 354 yards in Y2. If he finally blossoms into the field-spreading threat that he can be, that will eat into the Sun God’s yardage. For the time being, I think that Amon-Ra’s numbers are fair.

Davante Adams has long been one of the best receivers in the NFL. Since 2018, Adams has averaged 105 catches for 1,328 yards per season. That includes 2019, when Adams only played in 12 games. If you extrapolate his numbers per-17 games, you’d end up with almost 1,500 receiving yards per season. He’s the bonafide number 1 threat in the Raiders offense, with rookie TE Brock Bowers being the only potential threat to his target share. I think that Adams easily surpasses 1,062 yards.

Deebo and Kittle present an interesting case. Deebo has one truly elite season on his resume, when he had 77 catches for an astonishing 1,405 yards, but he’s never surpassed 900 yards in any of his other 4 seasons. With Brandon Aiyuk back in the 49ers’ offense and Christian McCaffrey set as the star RB who is also a receiving threat, I’m comfortable with Deebo’s total being set at 804 yards. For Kittle, I’m hammering the over. 750 feels a bit low for the entertaining tight end, who has gone over 750 yards receiving in each season where he’s started at least 9 games. He won’t have bigger numbers than Aiyuk, but it wouldn’t surprise me if Kittle flirted with 1,000 receiving yards this season.

Looking at the more immediate result, here are how the five players are projected to do this upcoming week:

Similar to Kittle, I just don’t see Deebo having a massive game against a talented Jets defense. I think the Niners win because of Aiyuk and Christian McCaffrey, with a sprinkle of Ronnie Bell and Kyle Juszczyk. Under

Davante Adams 72.5 receiving yards

The Raiders are playing the Chargers - new coaching staff, lot of turnover, early season game. I think Adams gets targeted early and often. Over.

Justin Jefferson 81.5 receiving yards

The Vikings are playing the Giants, in Sam Darnold’s first start as QB1 for Minnesota. Can Cor’Dale Flott, Adoree’ Jackson and Deonte Banks slow down a healthy Justin Jefferson? I don’t think so. Over.

George Kittle 41.5 receiving yards

The Jets have a spectacular defense and the duo of C.J. Mosley and Quincy Williams are as good as any LB duo in the league. Sauce Gardner will likely be tasked with handling Brandon Aiyuk, but I think the Jets can hold Kittle under 41 receiving yards.

Amon-Ra St. Brown 83.5 receiving yards

I’ll be really curious to see how Tre White adapts to playing for the Rams. If he’s himself (and healthy), he can absolutely present some issues for Amon-Ra St. Brown. That said, Week 1 is a tall order. I’ll take the Sun God over. 

Deebo Samuel 47.5 receiving yards

Similar to Kittle, I just don’t see Deebo having a massive game against a talented Jets defense. I think the Niners win because of Aiyuk and Christian McCaffrey, with a sprinkle of Ronnie Bell and Kyle Juszczyk. Under.