SGP Challenge: Pro Bettor vs. Huddle Quant

Welcome to our Thanksgiving Special! It's a showdown of sharp minds as a professional bettor takes on Huddle’s very own quant expert, Toni, in crafting the ultimate Same Game Parlay (SGP) picks.

Thanksgiving is effectively synonymous in the United States with the three holy “F’s.” Family. Food. Football.

One of the longest honored traditions about the NFL season is the Thanksgiving game (now games), with the Lions and Bears meeting this year for their 20th time on Turkey Day. 

The Lions, despite losing their star pass rusher Aidan Hutchinson earlier in the season, look like the NFC favorite right now. They have a balanced and dangerous run game featuring RBs David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs, a superstar wide receiver in Amon-Ra St. Brown, and one of the QB MVP candidates in Jared Goff. 

The Bears are playing improved football recently, notably on offense. The change of offensive coordinators appears to have helped their passing attack, with Caleb Williams improving and his connection with wide receiver D.J. Moore is starting to truly blossom. Despite that, the Lions have an explosive offense that should make things hell for the Bears defense.

Pro Bettor Picks

If you couldn’t tell by my tone, I’m taking the Lions. While upsets do often come from divisional opponents (see: Ravens losing to the Browns a couple of weeks ago), I think the Lions might be playing the best football of any team in the NFL. With an explosive offense, I’m also taking the over on points (O48.5). Truthfully, the Lions are capable of getting to 49 points on their own, but I do think the Bears will score in the 15-25 range. 

You might see the under on Jared Goff passing attempts and scratch your head, as one typically would think that an explosive offense relies on the passing game. Two weeks ago, the Lions dropped 52 on the hapless Jaguars, with Goff throwing… 29 passes. So pencil me in for Jared Goff O1.5 passing touchdowns as well.

Lastly, because the Bears offense will be relied upon to keep this game close, I’m taking Caleb Williams O229.5 passing yards and D.J. Moore O55.5 receiving yards. Williams has only exceeded 229.5 passing yards in four games this season, but he’s done it in the past two as his comfortability in the new offense grows. The same goes for Moore, who has logged back-to-back games with greater than 56 receiving yards, topping out with a 7/106/1 statline last week. 

Huddle Quant Picks

• Sam Laporta anytime touchdown scorer
• Sam Laporta over 35.5 receiving yards
• Jahmyr Gibbs over 68.5 rushing yards
• Caleb Williams over 33.5 passing attempts

After last year’s Rookie season when Sam Laporta scored 10 Touchdowns with 52 receiving yards per game, this season he is struggling, but I am optimistic he will ramp up his form heading to the playoffs. He was targeted 10 times out of 49 Detroit’s red zone passing attempts this season which gives me optimism.

Opposite to Laporta, Gibbs stepped up compared to last year. He increased his rushing yards per game from 63 to 80. He went over 68.5 8 times this season. Additionally, Montgomery is questionable heading to this match so hopefully, Gibbs can see some extra touches out of that backfield.

My last pick is Bears QB Caleb Williams having more than 33.5 passing attempts. I can see Bears being behind and catching the score difference in majority of the match. Lions are allowing 36 pass attempts per game which is 4th most in the league mostly because they were leading in most matches.