The Line Movers: NFL Week 8Blog
The Line Movers: NFL Week 8
Huddle utilizes cutting-edge technology combined with a world-class trading team to ensure that our partners consistently get precise pricing on all of sports' biggest moments. Our new series, 'The Line Movers' will tear back the curtain on the most impactful sports moments of the week and discuss how our traders approach pricing the market in real-time.
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NFL Week 8 Line Movers
Week 8 of the 2023/24 NFL season was full of gigantic plays, but unfortunately, it was also one of the most injury-filled weeks of the season as five teams lost their starting Quarterbacks to injury. Losing a starting Quarterback makes a gigantic impact on a team, but how much does it affect betting lines in real time? Let's analyze each of these injuries below and see how Huddle changed the market in real-time as the injuries occurred.
Pittsburgh Steelers - Kenny Pickett
Steelers QB Kenny Pickett was ruled out after suffering a rib injury in the first half of the 20-10 loss vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars. In the moments before the injury, Huddle gave Pittsburgh a 29% chance to win the game, which then dropped to 27.5% once Pickett left the field. Huddle traders priced Kenny Pickett and Mitchell Trubisky similarly, and the line moved due to the Steelers' game plan needing to adjust to Trubisky unexpectedly.
New York Giants - Tyrod Taylor
During the second quarter of the Giants rivalry matchup against the New York Jets, Quarterback Tyrod Taylor exited the game with a rib injury, forcing rookie Tommy DeVito to make his first NFL start. The line move for this injury is particularly interesting. Although Taylor is priced far higher than DeVito, the Giants' stalling offense facing the Jets steller defense was already poorly, lessening the line movement. In the moments before the injury, the Giants had a 27.5% chance of winning the game, which dropped only 2.5% to 25% once DeVito entered the play.
Los Angeles Rams - Matthew Stafford
Matthew Stafford sustained a thumb injury in the first quarter of the Rams matchup against the Dallas Cowboys that eventually led to him leaving the game before half-time. Unfortunately for Rams fans, this game was over before Stafford left the game, and the Rams Moneyline was all but dead before the half. After the Rams failed a 2pt conversion the Huddle-priced spread was DAL 24.5 (50% in either direction), and when Stafford was officially ruled out, this price moved to DAL 24.5 (54% in the Cowboys favor).
Minnesota Vikings - Kirk Cousins
The fan-favorite Quarterback, Kirk Cousins, sustained a season-ending Achilles injury during the Vikings matchup against the Green Bay Packers this weekend, exiting the field in the fourth quarter. Since the Vikings already had a big lead, the injury to Kirk had minimal movement across all lines. Although there is a sizeable difference in pricing between Kirk Cousins and backup Jaren Hill, the Vikings are notoriously un-aggressive when leading and, at the time of injury, Huddle traders only gave Minnesota a 38% chance of scoring again. This number dropped minimally to 37% once Kirk left the field.
Atlanta Falcons - Desmond Ridder
Desmond Ridder exited the Falcons' matchup against the Titans early in the third quarter after being evaluated in concussion protocol, and interestingly, Atlanta losing their starting Quarterback increased their chance of winning. Huddle traders put backup Taylor Heinikie slightly above the turnover-prone Ridder, increasing the Falcons' win probability. However, similar to the Steelers' situation, the increase was limited due to Heinike not being a part of the original game script. The Falcons' chance of winning in the moments before injury was 22% increasing to 22.5% once Ridder left the game. There is a more notable percentage upgrade looking ahead to next week's game due to the Falcons having a complete week with Heinike on the script.
The injuries in Week 8 of the NFL season were a perfect example of why sportsbooks need to utilize market-leading tech PLUS in-person trading when pricing lines. Each injury throughout the season is nuanced and multiple factors need to be taken into account rapidly to ensure pricing is precise and market-leading. Reach out to see how Huddle can integrate this into your sportsbook offering HERE.
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