The Line Movers: NFL Week 10

November 17, 2023

The Line Movers: NFL Week 10

Huddle utilizes cutting-edge technology and a world-class trading team to ensure that our partners consistently get precise pricing on all sports' biggest moments. Each week, our new content series, 'The Line Movers' will tear back the curtain on the most impactful and interesting sports moments of the week and discuss how our traders approach pricing the market in real-time. 

This week we are discussing the importance of Special Teams and how our trader's price win probability after missed PATs.

Before moving on - make sure to CLICK HERE and read how Huddle's market-leading product could supercharge your revenue.

NFL Week 10 Line Movers: Missed PATs

Although most fans obsess about their teams' offensive or defensive capabilities, NFL coaches stress the importance of the third aspect of the team - the Special Teams. The New England Patriots Head Coach, Bill Belichick is famous for his love of the Special Teams unit and has said on multiple occasions that if a team wins on Special Teams, they have a good shot at winning the game - but is that true? And if it is true, how much does something minor like a missed PAT affect a team's chance of winning? We dived into the betting data for NFL Week 10 to assess how Huddle traders moved the lines after some missed PATs to gain some insight.

Packers vs. Steelers

Last Sunday, during the Packers vs. Steelers game, Anders Carlson attempted to bring the Steelers within three points with a PAT when Patrick Peterson flew in and blocked the kick, leaving the Packers trailing 13-17 with 4:14 to play in the first half. Although this play only cost the Packers one point on the scoreboard, it had detrimental effects throughout the rest of the game and moved the Packers probability of winning slightly.

In the moments before the kick, Huddle traders had the Steelers probability of winning priced at 66.5% (-198). The Steelers' win projection jumped up to a 70% chance once the kick was missed (-233). To make things worse, at the end of the game the Packers were still down four points at the Steelers 20 and Jordan Love had no choice but to fire the ball into the end zone, resulting in a late interception and a Steelers win. If Carlson had made the early PAT, the Packers could have kicked to tie and taken the Steelers to overtime perhaps winning the game.

Browns vs. Ravens

The Browns vs. Ravens matchup was one of the best games played last weekend, with a ton of back-and-forth lead changes and rookie breakout performances (Find out how Huddle traders price rookie breakouts here). In the fourth quarter, the Cleveland Browns were down 7-points when Greg Newsome snatched a ball from mid-air and returned it for six points, leaving the Browns one point shy of tying the game. At this point, Huddle traders priced a Ravens win at -170, or 63%. Unfortunately for Browns fans, Dustin Hopkins hit a rare misstep, shanking the PAT, leaving the Browns down 1-point and moving the Ravens' projection of winning to 70.5% (-239 in-play odds). In the end, the missed PAT didn't come back to haunt the Browns as their defense gave their offense one more drive finishing with a Hopkins field goal for the win.

Huddle prices markets using the perfect combination of cutting-edge technology and in-person trading leading the market in key moments during games. Bill Belichick would be proud of how much time Huddle Traders spend pricing Special Team line movements and our commitment to providing our partners with precision pricing means that even a one-point miss is a big deal for us. Every sport, every play, every moment - Huddle keeps your customers in the game and limits your exposure throughout. Reach out here to see how we can integrate with your sportsbook today.

Subscribe to the Huddle newsletter below to get our Line Movers content series delivered directly to your inbox.