From Coin Toss to Touchdowns: Previewing Super Bowl LVIII and the Betting InsightsBlog
From Coin Toss to Touchdowns: Previewing Super Bowl LVIII and the Betting Insights
It’s officially the last week of the 2023-2024 NFL season. The Super Bowl is on Sunday, pitting the final two teams standing against one another.
On one end we have the reigning Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs, who came out of the AFC with arguably the three most impressive wins of the postseason by limiting the Miami Dolphins explosive offense to 7 points, going into Buffalo and taking down the red-hot Buffalo Bills, and then marching into Baltimore (home of the #1-seed Ravens) and shutting down their likely MVP QB.
On the other end, we have the San Francisco 49ers, the team most picked to come out of the NFC. With a deep and talented supporting cast on both sides of the ball, their biggest story is the unlikely rise of former Mr. Irrelevant, Brock Purdy. The second-year QB has been griefed by members of the media and fans alike for being nothing more than a game-manager, but his results are undeniable, and now he’s on the cusp of winning a Super Bowl.
This Super Bowl actually represents a rematch of Super Bowl LIV, which the Chiefs won by a score of 31-20, taking down the Jimmy Garappolo-led San Francisco 49ers. Jimmy G is long gone, and Brock Purdy likely represents an upgrade. The 49ers remain the oddsmakers’ favorite to hoist the coveted Lombardi Trophy, something I find ridiculous on several levels. For starters, the Chiefs are the defending Super Bowl champion, and they have a significantly better defense this year than they did last year.
If push comes to shove, I’m taking the Kansas City Chiefs – and by default, Patrick Mahomes becomes the undisputed “GOAT” of the next generation of post-Tom Brady QBs. He’ll have three Super Bowl titles to his name by the age of 28, with more postseason victories than Peyton Manning, John Elway and Aaron Rodgers, to name a few.
Looking at the Super Bowl, I chatted with Huddle NFL Trader James Cranford, who ran through some of the more unique bets that Huddle is prepared to offer for the biggest game of the NFL season.
What James is looking forward to the most is the increase in the number of players that Huddle will have player props for, first and foremost. Huddle is excited to offer as many players as they can, which is a much bigger undertaking than your run-of-the-mill Sunday afternoon game where Huddle might typically only have the starters available. For a game of such significance like the Super Bowl, Huddle will offer the backups too.
When you’re looking at engagement and “fun,” the Super Bowl creates fun via higher limits. As a result, it attracts a lot more betting from recreational players – more so than every other game of the NFL season, for obvious reasons. In terms of the spread and total markets, there’s no need to act much differently just because the bet sizes will be bigger. James will still have the line up, and thus won’t move anything unless a bettor he respects tells him to move it. For the larger offering of available player props, however, he has to be more cautious and act more aggressively based on best on those markets – particularly for players that don’t see much playing time.
He’s not necessarily looking at the coin toss as one of those caution-driven moments, but for me, the coin toss has always been something of a “bettor’s amusement,” so to speak. Before I even really knew what sports betting was, as a kid, we used to talk about if it was going to be heads or tails. The coin toss is a Super Bowl staple.
And if you want to look at something of statistical (perhaps) significance before the game even begins, you might want to check out the coin toss. Across the first 57 Super Bowls, the coin toss has landed on tails 30 times and heads 27 times. A seemingly innocuous event to start every NFL game, the coin toss has become a staple of betting culture – as a truly 50/50 outcome.
Huddle's Superbowl Betting Offering and SGP Masterpiece
I’d be remiss to not remind you that Huddle offers a comprehensive and impressive collection of offerings. I’m talking about a one-stop-shop solution, offering full market integration, same-game parlays, player props, micros, pre-game, and in-play offerings with industry-leading uptime and bespoke margin functionality. They simplify the process for operators, requiring just one commercial relationship and integration pathway for comprehensive market coverage.
I looked into Huddle market offering for Superbowl this year, so only fitting that for my last SGP of the season, I try to go out with a bang – my largest SGP so far.
This is a longshot for glory, an eight-leg masterpiece. I’m going to start with the obvious. I’m taking the Kansas City Chiefs moneyline. I’ll take Patrick Mahomes O1.5 passing touchdowns and O28.5 rushing touchdowns. Mahomes is an elite passer, and I expect him to get at least two scores via the air. But he’s a dangerous ground threat in his own right, and I expect him to break off a couple of long first down runs to prolong possessions.
I’ll also take Isaiah Pacheco O76.5 rushing yards. Pacheco is a delight to watch on the ground, as he racked up 89 and 97 rushing yards in his first two playoff matchups. Only the Ravens’ elite defense held him under 70 yards, but he still managed 24 attempts. I think he goes over 76.5 against SF.
I’m also going to take Travis Kelce O6.5 receptions, merely because he’s the greatest tight end in NFL history, he’s been absolutely dominant in the postseason so far, and he’s got an entire legion of Taylor Swift fans rooting for him. The last part might be in jest, but don’t discount the Taylor Swift effect. He’s going to get his looks early and often.
While Rashee Rice has certainly impressed me this year, he had under 50 receiving yards against Buffalo and Baltimore. The 49ers have a talented secondary, so I’ll take him U88.5 receiving yards.
To close with some bets for SF, I’m going to take Christian McCaffrey O37.5 receiving yards, as I think Brock Purdy will try to get his star offensive playmaker the ball in space. I’m also a Kyle Juszczyk supporter through and through, so why not hammer him O4.5 receiving yards in this match-up! Let’s go Juice!
+8900 with this bad boy. Let’s enjoy it, one final time.
I can already tell what some of you are thinking too – am I really going to spend so much time crafting a longshot same-game parlay (SGP)? Yes, and the industry is a big fan! Per EKG Line, SGPs made up roughly 50% of revenue at top U.S. operators on the NFL during the AFCCG and NFCCG, and they expect a similar percentage for the Super Bowl. They’re extraordinarily popular with customers for the live engagement experience. Expect tons of growth for SGPs moving forward, as you can point to the dream of a “Full SGP” experience in the near future.
The idea that any market on a betting site will be eligible to be added to an SGP with a live bet and cash-out value for its duration is gaining steam.
"We're very proud of our SGP because it's what we call the true SGP, in the sense that everything that we're able to price as a straight market, we're able to combine. So that includes every type of market that you can think of. You can combine micro with player props, combine micro with a full game and so on. We're so excited about seeing our SGP going live." Francesco Borgosano, CEO at Huddle.
SGPs are the future of live, in-play fan engagement with betting. You might as well strap-in and enjoy the ride.